GTA 5 expected to sell 14 million at launch

Sterne Agee analyst says Rockstar’s next open-world crime game will hit in the first quarter of 2013, bringing $700 million in sales with it.

GTA 5 will sell more at launch than Grand Theft Auto IV managed in its first year on shelves, according to one analyst. Sterne Agee’s Arvind Bhatia today released a note to investors, saying he expects the game to debut in the first three months of 2013, posting sales of 14 million copies.

Bhatia said the GTA 5 launch should bring in about $700 million in revenue for Take-Two, which said it expected just over $1 billion for Rockstar products this fiscal year. With Max Payne 3 the only announced Rockstar title to launch this year, Bhatia believes it “is all but a given” that the publisher is planning to launch GTA 5 before the March 31, 2013, end of its fiscal year.

For perspective on just how big the game is for the publisher, Take-Two’s previous fiscal year saw total revenues of $825.8 million. The publisher has projected this year’s sales to hit $1.75 billion to $1.85 billion. That uptick has led to widespread agreement from analysts that GTA 5 will launch in Take-Two’s current fiscal year.

GTA IV debuted in April of 2008 and shipped 13 million before the end of March 2009. The game enjoyed sales over a prolonged stretch of time, as two years later, Take-Two said shipments had reached nearly 20 million.